تاریخ

مقام/ کارشناس

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منبع

1984

US Senator Alan Cranston

Iran is seven years away from making a weapon

Scott Peterson, Imminent Iran nuclear threat? A timeline of warnings since 1979, The Christian Science Monitor, November 8, 2011

1992

Binyamin Netanyahu

Iran was “3 to 5 years” from having a nuclear weapon

Scott Peterson, Imminent Iran nuclear threat? A timeline of warnings since 1979, The Christian Science Monitor, November 8, 2011

2004

Colin L. Powell

We are talking about information that says they not only have [the] missiles but information that suggests they are working hard about how to put the two together

Robin Wright and Keith B. Richburg, Powell Says Iran Is Pursuing Bomb, Washington Post,
November 18, 2004

2005

Mohamed ElBaradei

Iran may be able to produce a nuclear weapon "a few months" after it becomes capable of enriching uranium

The Washington Times, Tuesday, October 11, 2005

2006

David Albright and Corey Hinderstein

Iran could have its first nuclear weapon in 2009

David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, Iran’s Next Steps: Final Tests and the Construction of a Uranium Enrichment Plant, Institute for Science and International Security, January 12, 2006

2006

Moshe Ya'alon

in six to 18 months Tehran would have the knowledge to produce nuclear weapons, and within three to five years it would have such weaponry if its plans went unchecked."

Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon, Stopping the Iranian Nuclear Program: Is There an Israeli Option? Hudson Institute, March 7, 2006

2006

American intelligence agencies

it will take 5 to 10 years for Iran to manufacture the fuel for its first atomic bomb."

William J. Broad and David E. Sanger, As Crisis Brews, Iran Hits Bumps in Atomic Path, The New York Times, March 5, 2006

2009

Mike Mullen

Iran has enough fissile material to make a nuclear bomb

Deborah Zabarenko, Iran "not close" to nuclear weapon: Gates, Reuters, Mar 1, 2009

2009

Dennis Blair

Even though Iran has made significant progress in enriching uranium, the State Department bureau "continues to assess it is unlikely that Iran will have the technical capability to produce HEU (highly enriched uranium) before 2013,"

In his earlier testimony to Congress, Blair has said Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb as early as 2010

France News Agency, Aug 7, 2009 

2010

James E. Cartwright (Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff)

Iran could produce bomb-grade fuel for at least one nuclear weapon within a year, but that it would probably need two to five years to manufacture a workable atomic bomb

David E. Sanger and Thom Shanker, Gates Says U.S. Lacks a Policy to Thwart Iran, The New York Times, April 17, 2010

2011

Ehud Barak

Iran is less than a year away from being unstoppable in its goal of producing a nuclear weapon

Haaretz Newspaper, Nov.19, 2011

2011

David Albright

Iran could make enough for a bomb in little more than six months using 1,000 advanced centrifuges if it decided to divert its stock of U.N. safeguarded low enriched uranium in a dash for a weapon

David Albright and Andrea Stricker, Iran’s Nuclear Program, Institute for Science and International Security, January 18, 2011

2012

Leon Panetta

the consensus is that, if they decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort in order to deliver that weapon

CNN, August 2, 2012